New Projections Show Increase in Uninsured Rates Over the Next 10 Years / by Joe Furia

Debbie Johnston, Senior Vice President of Policy Development

Last week the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) released the annual baseline budget projections estimating insurance coverage, premiums, and the cost of federal subsidies over the next 10 years. Some of the key takeaways include:

  • Premiums for benchmark plans are expected to increase by about 15 percent from 2018 to 2019 and about 7 percent annually through 2028
  • Many of the agencies’ projected changes resulted from new assumptions regarding eliminating the individual mandate penalty and coverage gains since 2012. For example, 10 percent of the premium increase is attributable to the loss of the individual mandate penalty
  • Coverage is also expected to impact the penalty elimination. For 2027, CBO projects subsidized marketplace coverage to be 3 million lower than the agency’s September 2017 report, and the total uninsured population is expected to be 5 million higher
  • CBO included in the definition of “insurance coverage,” some enrollment in Association Health Plans and short-term plans - neither of which are required (under federal proposed rules) to include the consumer protections and essential health benefits mandated by the Affordable Care Act